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Biggest Historical Upsets

Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.

2022-10-03Chronological backtest

De La Salle North CatholicAway

Catlin GabelHome

Final 0-10.0% chanceDe La Salle North Catholic win

2018-09-14Chronological backtest

Central LinnAway

South AlbanyHome

Final 0-60.0% chanceCentral Linn win

2018-09-13Chronological backtest

HenleyAway

CraterHome

Final 1-00.1% chanceCrater win

2018-10-23Chronological backtest

StaytonAway

CascadeHome

Final 1-00.2% chanceCascade win

2015-09-24Chronological backtest

Milo Adventist Acad.Away

St. Mary's, MedfordHome

Final 1-50.2% chanceMilo Adventist Acad. win

2022-10-21Chronological backtest

Damascus ChristianAway

Central ChristianHome

Final 0-10.3% chanceDamascus Christian win

2018-10-02Chronological backtest

WeiserAway

Four RiversHome

Final 4-10.3% chanceFour Rivers win

2022-10-28Chronological backtest

Faith BibleAway

Trout LakeHome

Final 1-20.6% chanceFaith Bible win

2014-10-22Chronological backtest

CraterAway

Cascade ChristianHome

Final 0-10.6% chanceCrater win

2015-10-26Chronological backtest

CulverAway

BendHome

Final 1-40.6% chanceCulver win

2018-09-19Chronological backtest

CraterAway

Milo Adventist Acad.Home

Final 3-40.7% chanceCrater win

2023-10-02Chronological backtest

Faith BibleAway

KennedyHome

Final 4-00.8% chanceKennedy win

2021-10-12Chronological backtest

Western Christian / AmityAway

Willamette Valley ChristianHome

Final 9-10.9% chanceWillamette Valley Christian win

2015-10-06Chronological backtest

RiversideAway

Waitsburg - PrescottHome

Final 3-10.9% chanceWaitsburg - Prescott win

2015-09-28Chronological backtest

CulverAway

SummitHome

Final 2-31.1% chanceCulver win

2022-10-27Chronological backtest

ParkroseAway

HillsboroHome

Final 4-21.2% chanceHillsboro win

2021-10-18Chronological backtest

LakeridgeAway

Lake OswegoHome

Final 4-11.2% chanceLake Oswego win

2021-10-13Chronological backtest

Brookings-HarborAway

Gold BeachHome

Final 3-21.3% chanceGold Beach win

2025-09-30Chronological backtest

IrrigonAway

Prescott (WA)Home

Final 0-21.4% chanceIrrigon win

2018-10-04Chronological backtest

GladstoneAway

EstacadaHome

Final 1-01.4% chanceEstacada win

2014-09-30Chronological backtest

ParkroseAway

St. HelensHome

Final 5-11.5% chanceSt. Helens win

2017-10-07Chronological backtest

TillamookAway

Sweet HomeHome

Final 1-01.6% chanceSweet Home win

2015-10-15Chronological backtest

North BendAway

Brookings-HarborHome

Final 1-01.7% chanceBrookings-Harbor win

2019-09-24Chronological backtest

Coquille / Myrtle PointAway

GlideHome

Final 1-01.7% chanceGlide win

2013-09-03Chronological backtest

Brookings-HarborAway

Coquille / Myrtle PointHome

Final 0-61.9% chanceBrookings-Harbor win

2013-09-03Chronological backtest

ThurstonAway

RedmondHome

Final 1-71.9% chanceThurston win

2013-09-03Chronological backtest

WilsonvilleAway

West LinnHome

Final 1-31.9% chanceWilsonville win

2013-09-03Chronological backtest

South EugeneAway

South MedfordHome

Final 1-31.9% chanceSouth Eugene win

2013-09-03Chronological backtest

Hood River ValleyAway

PutnamHome

Final 1-31.9% chanceHood River Valley win

2013-09-03Chronological backtest

Del NorteAway

Illinois ValleyHome

Final 2-111.9% chanceDel Norte win

2013-09-03Chronological backtest

BeavertonAway

Forest GroveHome

Final 0-21.9% chanceBeaverton win

2013-09-03Chronological backtest

HillsboroAway

LibertyHome

Final 0-11.9% chanceHillsboro win

2013-09-03Chronological backtest

Central CatholicAway

SunsetHome

Final 1-21.9% chanceCentral Catholic win

2022-10-20Chronological backtest

EstacadaAway

Crook CountyHome

Final 2-12.0% chanceCrook County win

2019-10-21Chronological backtest

Hidden ValleyAway

MazamaHome

Final 3-12.1% chanceMazama win

2023-10-07Chronological backtest

Rogue Valley Adventist Acad.Away

Cascade Adventist Academy (WA)Home

Final 2-72.1% chanceRogue Valley Adventist Acad. win

2021-10-26Chronological backtest

MarshfieldAway

North BendHome

Final 3-22.2% chanceNorth Bend win

2016-09-19Chronological backtest

PrescottAway

RiversideHome

Final 2-32.2% chancePrescott win

2017-10-10Chronological backtest

PaisleyAway

LakeviewHome

Final 7-32.2% chanceLakeview win

2023-09-20Chronological backtest

SunsetAway

Forest GroveHome

Final 1-32.3% chanceSunset win

2018-10-04Chronological backtest

DouglasAway

South UmpquaHome

Final 1-02.4% chanceSouth Umpqua win

2019-10-15Chronological backtest

TillamookAway

BanksHome

Final 3-22.4% chanceBanks win

2014-09-19Chronological backtest

Christian Brothers (CA)Away

JesuitHome

Final 0-12.5% chanceChristian Brothers (CA) win

2014-09-19Chronological backtest

Christian BrothersAway

JesuitHome

Final 0-12.5% chanceChristian Brothers win

2022-10-05Chronological backtest

Pleasant HillAway

Santiam Christian / Kings Valley Char.Home

Final 2-12.5% chanceSantiam Christian / Kings Valley Char. win

2021-11-03Chronological backtest

OntarioAway

StaytonHome

Final 0-12.6% chanceOntario win

2018-09-17Chronological backtest

Columbia ChristianAway

Life ChristianHome

Final 2-12.6% chanceLife Christian win

2019-10-16Chronological backtest

Canyonville Acad.Away

Rogue RiverHome

Final 3-22.6% chanceRogue River win

2019-10-22Chronological backtest

ChurchillAway

ThurstonHome

Final 2-12.7% chanceThurston win

2022-09-30Chronological backtest

North Clackamas ChristianAway

Columbia ChristianHome

Final 0-22.7% chanceNorth Clackamas Christian win

Date	Match	Final	Underdog winner	Pregame chance	Source
2022-10-03	De La Salle North Catholic at Catlin Gabel	0-1	De La Salle North Catholic	0.0%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-14	Central Linn at South Albany	0-6	Central Linn	0.0%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-13	Henley at Crater	1-0	Crater	0.1%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-23	Stayton at Cascade	1-0	Cascade	0.2%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-24	Milo Adventist Acad. at St. Mary's, Medford	1-5	Milo Adventist Acad.	0.2%	Chronological backtest
2022-10-21	Damascus Christian at Central Christian	0-1	Damascus Christian	0.3%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-02	Weiser at Four Rivers	4-1	Four Rivers	0.3%	Chronological backtest
2022-10-28	Faith Bible at Trout Lake	1-2	Faith Bible	0.6%	Chronological backtest
2014-10-22	Crater at Cascade Christian	0-1	Crater	0.6%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-26	Culver at Bend	1-4	Culver	0.6%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-19	Crater at Milo Adventist Acad.	3-4	Crater	0.7%	Chronological backtest
2023-10-02	Faith Bible at Kennedy	4-0	Kennedy	0.8%	Chronological backtest
2021-10-12	Western Christian / Amity at Willamette Valley Christian	9-1	Willamette Valley Christian	0.9%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-06	Riverside at Waitsburg - Prescott	3-1	Waitsburg - Prescott	0.9%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-28	Culver at Summit	2-3	Culver	1.1%	Chronological backtest
2022-10-27	Parkrose at Hillsboro	4-2	Hillsboro	1.2%	Chronological backtest
2021-10-18	Lakeridge at Lake Oswego	4-1	Lake Oswego	1.2%	Chronological backtest
2021-10-13	Brookings-Harbor at Gold Beach	3-2	Gold Beach	1.3%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-30	Irrigon at Prescott (WA)	0-2	Irrigon	1.4%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-04	Gladstone at Estacada	1-0	Estacada	1.4%	Chronological backtest
2014-09-30	Parkrose at St. Helens	5-1	St. Helens	1.5%	Chronological backtest
2017-10-07	Tillamook at Sweet Home	1-0	Sweet Home	1.6%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-15	North Bend at Brookings-Harbor	1-0	Brookings-Harbor	1.7%	Chronological backtest
2019-09-24	Coquille / Myrtle Point at Glide	1-0	Glide	1.7%	Chronological backtest
2013-09-03	Brookings-Harbor at Coquille / Myrtle Point	0-6	Brookings-Harbor	1.9%	Chronological backtest
2013-09-03	Thurston at Redmond	1-7	Thurston	1.9%	Chronological backtest
2013-09-03	Wilsonville at West Linn	1-3	Wilsonville	1.9%	Chronological backtest
2013-09-03	South Eugene at South Medford	1-3	South Eugene	1.9%	Chronological backtest
2013-09-03	Hood River Valley at Putnam	1-3	Hood River Valley	1.9%	Chronological backtest
2013-09-03	Del Norte at Illinois Valley	2-11	Del Norte	1.9%	Chronological backtest
2013-09-03	Beaverton at Forest Grove	0-2	Beaverton	1.9%	Chronological backtest
2013-09-03	Hillsboro at Liberty	0-1	Hillsboro	1.9%	Chronological backtest
2013-09-03	Central Catholic at Sunset	1-2	Central Catholic	1.9%	Chronological backtest
2022-10-20	Estacada at Crook County	2-1	Crook County	2.0%	Chronological backtest
2019-10-21	Hidden Valley at Mazama	3-1	Mazama	2.1%	Chronological backtest
2023-10-07	Rogue Valley Adventist Acad. at Cascade Adventist Academy (WA)	2-7	Rogue Valley Adventist Acad.	2.1%	Chronological backtest
2021-10-26	Marshfield at North Bend	3-2	North Bend	2.2%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-19	Prescott at Riverside	2-3	Prescott	2.2%	Chronological backtest
2017-10-10	Paisley at Lakeview	7-3	Lakeview	2.2%	Chronological backtest
2023-09-20	Sunset at Forest Grove	1-3	Sunset	2.3%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-04	Douglas at South Umpqua	1-0	South Umpqua	2.4%	Chronological backtest
2019-10-15	Tillamook at Banks	3-2	Banks	2.4%	Chronological backtest
2014-09-19	Christian Brothers (CA) at Jesuit	0-1	Christian Brothers (CA)	2.5%	Chronological backtest
2014-09-19	Christian Brothers at Jesuit	0-1	Christian Brothers	2.5%	Chronological backtest
2022-10-05	Pleasant Hill at Santiam Christian / Kings Valley Char.	2-1	Santiam Christian / Kings Valley Char.	2.5%	Chronological backtest
2021-11-03	Ontario at Stayton	0-1	Ontario	2.6%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-17	Columbia Christian at Life Christian	2-1	Life Christian	2.6%	Chronological backtest
2019-10-16	Canyonville Acad. at Rogue River	3-2	Rogue River	2.6%	Chronological backtest
2019-10-22	Churchill at Thurston	2-1	Thurston	2.7%	Chronological backtest
2022-09-30	North Clackamas Christian at Columbia Christian	0-2	North Clackamas Christian	2.7%	Chronological backtest