HomeUpsets

Biggest Historical Upsets

Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.

2024-09-24Chronological backtest

Marist CatholicAway

Valley CatholicHome

Final 0-15.0% chanceMarist Catholic win

2024-10-18Chronological backtest

SpragueAway

South SalemHome

Final 1-28.0% chanceSprague win

2024-10-24Chronological backtest

ElmiraAway

Brookings-HarborHome

Final 3-49.8% chanceElmira win

2024-10-01Chronological backtest

Mannahouse Acad., PortlandAway

Willamette Valley ChristianHome

Final 3-211.7% chanceWillamette Valley Christian win

2024-10-22Chronological backtest

WilsonvilleAway

ParkroseHome

Final 3-211.8% chanceParkrose win

2024-11-12Chronological backtest

HenleyAway

StaytonHome

Final 1-212.6% chanceHenley win

2024-11-09Chronological backtest

WilsonvilleAway

Crescent ValleyHome

Final 2-313.2% chanceWilsonville win

2024-09-26Chronological backtest

MarshfieldAway

Junction City / HarrisburgHome

Final 3-113.3% chanceJunction City / Harrisburg win

2024-10-01Chronological backtest

Rogue RiverAway

Lakeview / PaisleyHome

Final 3-413.4% chanceRogue River win

2024-10-16Chronological backtest

Lake OswegoAway

TualatinHome

Final 2-114.1% chanceTualatin win

2024-10-17Chronological backtest

AstoriaAway

TillamookHome

Final 1-215.0% chanceAstoria win

2024-09-11Chronological backtest

PutnamAway

CalderaHome

Final 0-215.2% chancePutnam win

2024-10-22Chronological backtest

Lost River / BonanzaAway

Cascade ChristianHome

Final 1-015.3% chanceCascade Christian win

2024-09-12Chronological backtest

Livingstone Adventist Acad.Away

C.S. Lewis Acad.Home

Final 0-315.4% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win

2024-11-16Chronological backtest

La Salle PrepAway

SummitHome

Final 1-216.1% chanceLa Salle Prep win

2024-10-19Chronological backtest

AshlandAway

SpringfieldHome

Final 3-216.4% chanceSpringfield win

2024-10-25Chronological backtest

West SalemAway

South SalemHome

Final 0-116.7% chanceWest Salem win

2024-09-23Chronological backtest

Southwest ChristianAway

Valor Christian / Tualatin Valley Acad.Home

Final 1-917.0% chanceSouthwest Christian win

2024-08-31Chronological backtest

La Salle PrepAway

Coronado (NV)Home

Final 6-017.5% chanceCoronado (NV) win

2024-09-19Chronological backtest

Willamette Valley ChristianAway

C.S. Lewis Acad.Home

Final 3-617.5% chanceWillamette Valley Christian win

2024-10-23Chronological backtest

SistersAway

Pleasant HillHome

Final 1-017.9% chancePleasant Hill win

2024-10-09Chronological backtest

Lake OswegoAway

Oregon CityHome

Final 2-018.0% chanceOregon City win

2024-09-17Chronological backtest

CalderaAway

HenleyHome

Final 1-218.2% chanceCaldera win

2024-09-26Chronological backtest

BarlowAway

ClevelandHome

Final 1-218.3% chanceBarlow win

2024-10-15Chronological backtest

West SalemAway

North SalemHome

Final 0-118.9% chanceWest Salem win

2024-10-28Chronological backtest

Livingstone Adventist Acad.Away

Valor Christian / Tualatin Valley Acad.Home

Final 1-319.3% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win

2024-10-03Chronological backtest

GervaisAway

TaftHome

Final 3-219.4% chanceTaft win

2024-10-17Chronological backtest

SilvertonAway

CentralHome

Final 2-019.8% chanceCentral win

2024-11-09Chronological backtest

GrantAway

LakeridgeHome

Final 1-320.0% chanceGrant win

2024-10-22Chronological backtest

RooseveltAway

FranklinHome

Final 1-620.1% chanceRoosevelt win

2024-09-17Chronological backtest

Lake OswegoAway

FranklinHome

Final 2-420.3% chanceLake Oswego win

2024-10-10Chronological backtest

PhilomathAway

Newport / WaldportHome

Final 1-220.3% chancePhilomath win

2024-10-25Chronological backtest

BendAway

RidgeviewHome

Final 2-121.3% chanceRidgeview win

2024-10-16Chronological backtest

SpringfieldAway

ChurchillHome

Final 1-321.3% chanceSpringfield win

2024-10-25Chronological backtest

North Clackamas ChristianAway

Mannahouse Acad., PortlandHome

Final 1-221.5% chanceNorth Clackamas Christian win

2024-10-23Chronological backtest

Columbia ChristianAway

Faith BibleHome

Final 2-321.7% chanceColumbia Christian win

2024-09-11Chronological backtest

ParkroseAway

ChurchillHome

Final 2-521.8% chanceParkrose win

2024-09-12Chronological backtest

UmatillaAway

La GrandeHome

Final 3-222.0% chanceLa Grande win

2024-09-26Chronological backtest

TigardAway

WestviewHome

Final 1-222.2% chanceTigard win

2024-10-24Chronological backtest

TualatinAway

TigardHome

Final 0-122.3% chanceTualatin win

2024-09-09Chronological backtest

Central ChristianAway

Valor Christian / Tualatin Valley Acad.Home

Final 4-522.4% chanceCentral Christian win

2024-10-03Chronological backtest

South EugeneAway

Grants PassHome

Final 1-022.6% chanceGrants Pass win

2024-10-26Chronological backtest

SpringfieldAway

Eagle PointHome

Final 2-322.6% chanceSpringfield win

2024-11-09Chronological backtest

McNaryAway

BeavertonHome

Final 0-122.7% chanceMcNary win

2024-09-09Chronological backtest

C.S. Lewis Acad.Away

Mannahouse Acad., PortlandHome

Final 8-023.1% chanceMannahouse Acad., Portland win

2024-10-07Chronological backtest

Crosshill Christian / JeffersonAway

ElmiraHome

Final 1-223.2% chanceCrosshill Christian / Jefferson win

2024-08-30Chronological backtest

Crosshill Christian / JeffersonAway

Salem Acad.Home

Final 1-223.4% chanceCrosshill Christian / Jefferson win

2024-10-11Chronological backtest

Mountain ViewAway

CalderaHome

Final 0-123.5% chanceMountain View win

2024-10-22Chronological backtest

McKayAway

WoodburnHome

Final 1-323.6% chanceMcKay win

2024-09-24Chronological backtest

FranklinAway

McMinnvilleHome

Final 1-223.6% chanceFranklin win

Date	Match	Final	Underdog winner	Pregame chance	Source
2024-09-24	Marist Catholic at Valley Catholic	0-1	Marist Catholic	5.0%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-18	Sprague at South Salem	1-2	Sprague	8.0%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-24	Elmira at Brookings-Harbor	3-4	Elmira	9.8%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-01	Mannahouse Acad., Portland at Willamette Valley Christian	3-2	Willamette Valley Christian	11.7%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-22	Wilsonville at Parkrose	3-2	Parkrose	11.8%	Chronological backtest
2024-11-12	Henley at Stayton	1-2	Henley	12.6%	Chronological backtest
2024-11-09	Wilsonville at Crescent Valley	2-3	Wilsonville	13.2%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-26	Marshfield at Junction City / Harrisburg	3-1	Junction City / Harrisburg	13.3%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-01	Rogue River at Lakeview / Paisley	3-4	Rogue River	13.4%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-16	Lake Oswego at Tualatin	2-1	Tualatin	14.1%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-17	Astoria at Tillamook	1-2	Astoria	15.0%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-11	Putnam at Caldera	0-2	Putnam	15.2%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-22	Lost River / Bonanza at Cascade Christian	1-0	Cascade Christian	15.3%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-12	Livingstone Adventist Acad. at C.S. Lewis Acad.	0-3	Livingstone Adventist Acad.	15.4%	Chronological backtest
2024-11-16	La Salle Prep at Summit	1-2	La Salle Prep	16.1%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-19	Ashland at Springfield	3-2	Springfield	16.4%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-25	West Salem at South Salem	0-1	West Salem	16.7%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-23	Southwest Christian at Valor Christian / Tualatin Valley Acad.	1-9	Southwest Christian	17.0%	Chronological backtest
2024-08-31	La Salle Prep at Coronado (NV)	6-0	Coronado (NV)	17.5%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-19	Willamette Valley Christian at C.S. Lewis Acad.	3-6	Willamette Valley Christian	17.5%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-23	Sisters at Pleasant Hill	1-0	Pleasant Hill	17.9%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-09	Lake Oswego at Oregon City	2-0	Oregon City	18.0%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-17	Caldera at Henley	1-2	Caldera	18.2%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-26	Barlow at Cleveland	1-2	Barlow	18.3%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-15	West Salem at North Salem	0-1	West Salem	18.9%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-28	Livingstone Adventist Acad. at Valor Christian / Tualatin Valley Acad.	1-3	Livingstone Adventist Acad.	19.3%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-03	Gervais at Taft	3-2	Taft	19.4%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-17	Silverton at Central	2-0	Central	19.8%	Chronological backtest
2024-11-09	Grant at Lakeridge	1-3	Grant	20.0%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-22	Roosevelt at Franklin	1-6	Roosevelt	20.1%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-17	Lake Oswego at Franklin	2-4	Lake Oswego	20.3%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-10	Philomath at Newport / Waldport	1-2	Philomath	20.3%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-25	Bend at Ridgeview	2-1	Ridgeview	21.3%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-16	Springfield at Churchill	1-3	Springfield	21.3%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-25	North Clackamas Christian at Mannahouse Acad., Portland	1-2	North Clackamas Christian	21.5%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-23	Columbia Christian at Faith Bible	2-3	Columbia Christian	21.7%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-11	Parkrose at Churchill	2-5	Parkrose	21.8%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-12	Umatilla at La Grande	3-2	La Grande	22.0%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-26	Tigard at Westview	1-2	Tigard	22.2%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-24	Tualatin at Tigard	0-1	Tualatin	22.3%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-09	Central Christian at Valor Christian / Tualatin Valley Acad.	4-5	Central Christian	22.4%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-03	South Eugene at Grants Pass	1-0	Grants Pass	22.6%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-26	Springfield at Eagle Point	2-3	Springfield	22.6%	Chronological backtest
2024-11-09	McNary at Beaverton	0-1	McNary	22.7%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-09	C.S. Lewis Acad. at Mannahouse Acad., Portland	8-0	Mannahouse Acad., Portland	23.1%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-07	Crosshill Christian / Jefferson at Elmira	1-2	Crosshill Christian / Jefferson	23.2%	Chronological backtest
2024-08-30	Crosshill Christian / Jefferson at Salem Acad.	1-2	Crosshill Christian / Jefferson	23.4%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-11	Mountain View at Caldera	0-1	Mountain View	23.5%	Chronological backtest
2024-10-22	McKay at Woodburn	1-3	McKay	23.6%	Chronological backtest
2024-09-24	Franklin at McMinnville	1-2	Franklin	23.6%	Chronological backtest