HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Scores are home–away. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. Backtests that predate the verified JV cleanup are withheld until refreshed. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
2017-10-07Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-01.7% chanceSweet Home win
2017-10-02Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-34.4% chanceWestern Mennonite win
2017-10-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-26.0% chanceGlide win
2017-10-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-26.2% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win
2017-09-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-27.0% chanceHorizon Christian, Hood River win
2017-11-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-28.0% chanceNewport win
2017-10-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-38.7% chanceJunction City win
2017-10-07Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-28.9% chancePacific / Bandon win
2017-10-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-19.1% chanceGervais win
2017-10-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-210.2% chanceCanyonville Christian Acad. win
2017-09-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-110.5% chanceLa Grande win
2017-10-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-310.5% chanceBeaverton win
2017-09-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-211.3% chanceLakeridge win
2017-09-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-211.6% chanceClackamas win
2017-10-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-112.0% chanceWestside Christian win
2017-08-31Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-212.3% chanceParkrose win
2017-11-01Chronological backtest
CE
CentralHomeFinal (home–away) 0-112.4% chanceMarist Catholic win
2017-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-212.9% chanceRoseburg win
2017-10-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-313.0% chanceWest Linn win
2017-11-01Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-213.0% chanceCottage Grove win
2017-11-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-313.0% chanceDe La Salle North Catholic win
2017-10-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-213.2% chanceCleveland win
2017-08-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-114.1% chanceBend win
2017-10-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-314.2% chanceAloha win
2017-10-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-314.4% chanceLiberty win
2017-08-31Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-315.0% chanceSouth Eugene win
2017-11-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-215.1% chanceWoodburn win
2017-08-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-315.2% chanceDayton win
2017-10-19Chronological backtest
CE
CentralHomeFinal (home–away) 1-015.3% chanceCentral win
2017-10-10Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-115.7% chanceCrook County win
2017-09-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 5-315.7% chanceBaker / Powder Valley win
2017-09-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-315.8% chanceDayton win
2017-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-215.9% chanceOregon City win
2017-09-07Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-215.9% chanceDallas win
2017-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-616.0% chanceNorth Marion win
2017-09-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-416.1% chanceIllinois Valley win
2017-10-17Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-316.3% chanceDavid Douglas win
2017-10-14Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-216.8% chanceMcLoughlin win
2017-08-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-117.2% chanceCorvallis win
2017-09-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-217.6% chanceLa Pine win
2017-09-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-017.6% chanceSalem Acad. win
2017-11-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-317.7% chanceRiverdale win
2017-11-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-217.7% chanceNewport win
2017-10-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-418.0% chanceWestside Christian win
2017-10-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-418.1% chanceNorth Salem win
2017-10-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-218.6% chanceNorth Eugene win
2017-08-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-218.6% chanceHidden Valley win
2017-09-14Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-119.0% chancePleasant Hill win
2017-09-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-219.3% chanceSprague win
2017-09-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 10-019.9% chanceDamascus Christian win
| Date | Match | Final (home–away) | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-10-07 | | 1-0 | Sweet Home | 1.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-02 | | 2-3 | Western Mennonite | 4.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-10 | | 3-2 | Glide | 6.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-23 | | 1-2 | Livingstone Adventist Acad. | 6.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-25 | | 1-2 | Horizon Christian, Hood River | 7.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-11-11 | | 1-2 | Newport | 8.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-19 | | 2-3 | Junction City | 8.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-07 | | 1-2 | Pacific / Bandon | 8.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-28 | | 3-1 | Gervais | 9.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-18 | | 1-2 | Canyonville Christian Acad. | 10.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-01 | | 0-1 | La Grande | 10.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-16 | | 1-3 | Beaverton | 10.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-30 | | 3-2 | Lakeridge | 11.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-27 | | 3-2 | Clackamas | 11.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-20 | | 2-1 | Westside Christian | 12.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-08-31 | | 1-2 | Parkrose | 12.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-11-01 | CE Central | 0-1 | Marist Catholic | 12.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-26 | | 4-2 | Roseburg | 12.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-28 | | 1-3 | West Linn | 13.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-11-01 | | 3-2 | Cottage Grove | 13.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-11-04 | | 2-3 | De La Salle North Catholic | 13.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-28 | | 1-2 | Cleveland | 13.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-08-29 | | 0-1 | Bend | 14.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-28 | | 2-3 | Aloha | 14.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-05 | | 2-3 | Liberty | 14.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-08-31 | | 1-3 | South Eugene | 15.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-11-11 | | 1-2 | Woodburn | 15.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-08-30 | | 0-3 | Dayton | 15.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-19 | CE Central | 1-0 | Central | 15.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-10 | | 3-1 | Crook County | 15.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-19 | | 5-3 | Baker / Powder Valley | 15.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-25 | | 2-3 | Dayton | 15.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-03 | | 0-2 | Oregon City | 15.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-07 | | 1-2 | Dallas | 15.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-26 | | 3-6 | North Marion | 16.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-20 | | 1-4 | Illinois Valley | 16.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-17 | | 1-3 | David Douglas | 16.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-14 | | 1-2 | McLoughlin | 16.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-08-29 | | 0-1 | Corvallis | 17.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-21 | | 1-2 | La Pine | 17.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-12 | | 1-0 | Salem Acad. | 17.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-11-04 | | 2-3 | Riverdale | 17.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-11-04 | | 1-2 | Newport | 17.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-16 | | 2-4 | Westside Christian | 18.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-28 | | 1-4 | North Salem | 18.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-10-03 | | 0-2 | North Eugene | 18.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-08-30 | | 1-2 | Hidden Valley | 18.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-14 | | 2-1 | Pleasant Hill | 19.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-26 | | 1-2 | Sprague | 19.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2017-09-11 | | 10-0 | Damascus Christian | 19.9% | Chronological backtest |