HomeUpsets

Biggest Historical Upsets

Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.

2015-09-24Chronological backtest

Milo Adventist Acad.Away

St. Mary's, MedfordHome

Final 1-50.2% chanceMilo Adventist Acad. win

2015-10-26Chronological backtest

CulverAway

BendHome

Final 1-40.6% chanceCulver win

2015-10-06Chronological backtest

RiversideAway

Waitsburg - PrescottHome

Final 3-10.9% chanceWaitsburg - Prescott win

2015-09-28Chronological backtest

CulverAway

SummitHome

Final 2-31.1% chanceCulver win

2015-10-15Chronological backtest

North BendAway

Brookings-HarborHome

Final 1-01.7% chanceBrookings-Harbor win

2015-09-24Chronological backtest

Santiam ChristianAway

East Linn ChristianHome

Final 1-22.9% chanceSantiam Christian win

2015-10-08Chronological backtest

Livingstone Adventist Acad.Away

Columbia Adventist AcademyHome

Final 0-13.5% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win

2015-10-12Chronological backtest

PhoenixAway

Hidden ValleyHome

Final 2-14.1% chanceHidden Valley win

2015-10-08Chronological backtest

Salem Acad.Away

DaytonHome

Final 1-24.8% chanceSalem Acad. win

2015-10-09Chronological backtest

Livingstone Adventist Acad.Away

Mile High Adventist AcademyHome

Final 1-25.1% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win

2015-10-15Chronological backtest

North ValleyAway

PhoenixHome

Final 1-25.8% chanceNorth Valley win

2015-09-24Chronological backtest

TigardAway

BarlowHome

Final 0-15.9% chanceTigard win

2015-11-07Chronological backtest

DelphianAway

Catlin GabelHome

Final 1-26.2% chanceDelphian win

2015-10-06Chronological backtest

Central LinnAway

Pleasant HillHome

Final 0-16.2% chanceCentral Linn win

2015-09-29Chronological backtest

St. HelensAway

ParkroseHome

Final 4-06.9% chanceParkrose win

2015-10-13Chronological backtest

PutnamAway

ParkroseHome

Final 3-27.3% chanceParkrose win

2015-09-10Chronological backtest

La GrandeAway

OntarioHome

Final 0-27.9% chanceLa Grande win

2015-09-22Chronological backtest

ParkroseAway

Columbia Christian / Portland ChristianHome

Final 1-28.3% chanceParkrose win

2015-10-15Chronological backtest

Life ChristianAway

Portland Adventist Acad.Home

Final 1-28.6% chanceLife Christian win

2015-09-22Chronological backtest

MarshfieldAway

Coquille / Myrtle PointHome

Final 3-59.0% chanceMarshfield win

2015-10-20Chronological backtest

PhilomathAway

NewportHome

Final 1-29.0% chancePhilomath win

2015-10-31Chronological backtest

RooseveltAway

Forest GroveHome

Final 1-29.4% chanceRoosevelt win

2015-09-24Chronological backtest

CascadeAway

NewportHome

Final 0-110.2% chanceCascade win

2015-10-22Chronological backtest

CenturyAway

SunsetHome

Final 2-310.3% chanceCentury win

2015-10-30Chronological backtest

CentralAway

ChurchillHome

Final 2-410.3% chanceCentral win

2015-09-17Chronological backtest

CorvallisAway

Marist CatholicHome

Final 3-011.3% chanceMarist Catholic win

2015-10-08Chronological backtest

BendAway

Crook CountyHome

Final 1-011.4% chanceCrook County win

2015-09-26Chronological backtest

De La Salle North CatholicAway

Trout Lake - GlenwoodHome

Final 3-212.4% chanceTrout Lake - Glenwood win

2015-09-02Chronological backtest

Sweet HomeAway

CreswellHome

Final 3-412.6% chanceSweet Home win

2015-10-01Chronological backtest

City ChristianAway

North Clackamas ChristianHome

Final 2-312.9% chanceCity Christian win

2015-09-29Chronological backtest

Westside ChristianAway

Columbia Christian / Portland ChristianHome

Final 0-113.0% chanceWestside Christian win

2015-09-17Chronological backtest

North Clackamas ChristianAway

Trout Lake - GlenwoodHome

Final 2-313.1% chanceNorth Clackamas Christian win

2015-10-08Chronological backtest

Milo Adventist Acad.Away

Livingstone Adventist Acad.Home

Final 4-313.1% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win

2015-10-01Chronological backtest

ScappooseAway

SeasideHome

Final 0-113.4% chanceScappoose win

2015-09-10Chronological backtest

Sutherlin / OaklandAway

South Umpqua / RiddleHome

Final 0-213.4% chanceSutherlin / Oakland win

2015-09-15Chronological backtest

BarlowAway

BensonHome

Final 2-113.5% chanceBenson win

2015-09-17Chronological backtest

Livingstone Adventist Acad.Away

Central ChristianHome

Final 3-613.5% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win

2015-09-17Chronological backtest

GreshamAway

SouthridgeHome

Final 0-113.6% chanceGresham win

2015-09-24Chronological backtest

GladstoneAway

Crook CountyHome

Final 1-313.7% chanceGladstone win

2015-10-02Chronological backtest

McKayAway

North SalemHome

Final 1-013.9% chanceNorth Salem win

2015-10-01Chronological backtest

NewbergAway

TigardHome

Final 0-114.2% chanceNewberg win

2015-10-19Chronological backtest

C.S. Lewis Acad.Away

Livingstone Adventist Acad.Home

Final 1-014.4% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win

2015-09-29Chronological backtest

ElmiraAway

Sweet HomeHome

Final 1-214.4% chanceElmira win

2015-11-03Chronological backtest

SummitAway

AshlandHome

Final 1-214.8% chanceSummit win

2015-10-22Chronological backtest

ClevelandAway

WilsonHome

Final 1-314.8% chanceCleveland win

2015-10-31Chronological backtest

ClackamasAway

West LinnHome

Final 1-214.9% chanceClackamas win

2015-10-20Chronological backtest

StaytonAway

North MarionHome

Final 2-315.0% chanceStayton win

2015-09-19Chronological backtest

JesuitAway

LincolnHome

Final 0-115.1% chanceJesuit win

2015-10-05Chronological backtest

Central CatholicAway

Oregon CityHome

Final 1-215.2% chanceCentral Catholic win

2015-11-10Chronological backtest

LincolnAway

McMinnvilleHome

Final 1-215.4% chanceLincoln win

Date	Match	Final	Underdog winner	Pregame chance	Source
2015-09-24	Milo Adventist Acad. at St. Mary's, Medford	1-5	Milo Adventist Acad.	0.2%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-26	Culver at Bend	1-4	Culver	0.6%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-06	Riverside at Waitsburg - Prescott	3-1	Waitsburg - Prescott	0.9%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-28	Culver at Summit	2-3	Culver	1.1%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-15	North Bend at Brookings-Harbor	1-0	Brookings-Harbor	1.7%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-24	Santiam Christian at East Linn Christian	1-2	Santiam Christian	2.9%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-08	Livingstone Adventist Acad. at Columbia Adventist Academy	0-1	Livingstone Adventist Acad.	3.5%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-12	Phoenix at Hidden Valley	2-1	Hidden Valley	4.1%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-08	Salem Acad. at Dayton	1-2	Salem Acad.	4.8%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-09	Livingstone Adventist Acad. at Mile High Adventist Academy	1-2	Livingstone Adventist Acad.	5.1%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-15	North Valley at Phoenix	1-2	North Valley	5.8%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-24	Tigard at Barlow	0-1	Tigard	5.9%	Chronological backtest
2015-11-07	Delphian at Catlin Gabel	1-2	Delphian	6.2%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-06	Central Linn at Pleasant Hill	0-1	Central Linn	6.2%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-29	St. Helens at Parkrose	4-0	Parkrose	6.9%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-13	Putnam at Parkrose	3-2	Parkrose	7.3%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-10	La Grande at Ontario	0-2	La Grande	7.9%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-22	Parkrose at Columbia Christian / Portland Christian	1-2	Parkrose	8.3%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-15	Life Christian at Portland Adventist Acad.	1-2	Life Christian	8.6%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-22	Marshfield at Coquille / Myrtle Point	3-5	Marshfield	9.0%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-20	Philomath at Newport	1-2	Philomath	9.0%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-31	Roosevelt at Forest Grove	1-2	Roosevelt	9.4%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-24	Cascade at Newport	0-1	Cascade	10.2%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-22	Century at Sunset	2-3	Century	10.3%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-30	Central at Churchill	2-4	Central	10.3%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-17	Corvallis at Marist Catholic	3-0	Marist Catholic	11.3%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-08	Bend at Crook County	1-0	Crook County	11.4%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-26	De La Salle North Catholic at Trout Lake - Glenwood	3-2	Trout Lake - Glenwood	12.4%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-02	Sweet Home at Creswell	3-4	Sweet Home	12.6%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-01	City Christian at North Clackamas Christian	2-3	City Christian	12.9%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-29	Westside Christian at Columbia Christian / Portland Christian	0-1	Westside Christian	13.0%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-17	North Clackamas Christian at Trout Lake - Glenwood	2-3	North Clackamas Christian	13.1%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-08	Milo Adventist Acad. at Livingstone Adventist Acad.	4-3	Livingstone Adventist Acad.	13.1%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-01	Scappoose at Seaside	0-1	Scappoose	13.4%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-10	Sutherlin / Oakland at South Umpqua / Riddle	0-2	Sutherlin / Oakland	13.4%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-15	Barlow at Benson	2-1	Benson	13.5%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-17	Livingstone Adventist Acad. at Central Christian	3-6	Livingstone Adventist Acad.	13.5%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-17	Gresham at Southridge	0-1	Gresham	13.6%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-24	Gladstone at Crook County	1-3	Gladstone	13.7%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-02	McKay at North Salem	1-0	North Salem	13.9%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-01	Newberg at Tigard	0-1	Newberg	14.2%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-19	C.S. Lewis Acad. at Livingstone Adventist Acad.	1-0	Livingstone Adventist Acad.	14.4%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-29	Elmira at Sweet Home	1-2	Elmira	14.4%	Chronological backtest
2015-11-03	Summit at Ashland	1-2	Summit	14.8%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-22	Cleveland at Wilson	1-3	Cleveland	14.8%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-31	Clackamas at West Linn	1-2	Clackamas	14.9%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-20	Stayton at North Marion	2-3	Stayton	15.0%	Chronological backtest
2015-09-19	Jesuit at Lincoln	0-1	Jesuit	15.1%	Chronological backtest
2015-10-05	Central Catholic at Oregon City	1-2	Central Catholic	15.2%	Chronological backtest
2015-11-10	Lincoln at McMinnville	1-2	Lincoln	15.4%	Chronological backtest