HomeUpsets

Biggest Historical Upsets

Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.

2016-09-19Chronological backtest

PrescottAway

RiversideHome

Final 2-32.2% chancePrescott win

2016-10-06Chronological backtest

CorbettAway

GladstoneHome

Final 0-13.4% chanceCorbett win

2016-10-05Chronological backtest

Illinois ValleyAway

Pacific / BandonHome

Final 1-64.0% chanceIllinois Valley win

2016-10-14Chronological backtest

Santiam ChristianAway

East Linn ChristianHome

Final 1-04.3% chanceEast Linn Christian win

2016-10-06Chronological backtest

Crook CountyAway

EstacadaHome

Final 3-44.7% chanceCrook County win

2016-10-20Chronological backtest

BendAway

Mountain ViewHome

Final 3-25.7% chanceMountain View win

2016-09-28Chronological backtest

GervaisAway

Faith BibleHome

Final 2-15.9% chanceFaith Bible win

2016-09-29Chronological backtest

Umpqua Valley Christian / Melrose ChristianAway

Crosshill ChristianHome

Final 4-36.0% chanceCrosshill Christian win

2016-11-02Chronological backtest

DelphianAway

St. Mary's, MedfordHome

Final 0-16.0% chanceDelphian win

2016-09-28Chronological backtest

EurekaAway

Brookings-HarborHome

Final 1-26.3% chanceEureka win

2016-10-08Chronological backtest

San GabrielAway

Portland Adventist Acad.Home

Final 1-26.8% chanceSan Gabriel win

2016-09-20Chronological backtest

EstacadaAway

Crook CountyHome

Final 4-37.1% chanceCrook County win

2016-10-14Chronological backtest

McNaryAway

CentralHome

Final 0-37.5% chanceMcNary win

2016-10-19Chronological backtest

Southwest ChristianAway

Crosshill ChristianHome

Final 2-37.6% chanceSouthwest Christian win

2016-09-26Chronological backtest

WestviewAway

CenturyHome

Final 0-27.8% chanceWestview win

2016-10-06Chronological backtest

Klamath UnionAway

MazamaHome

Final 1-27.9% chanceKlamath Union win

2016-10-15Chronological backtest

PutnamAway

Mountain ViewHome

Final 3-28.3% chanceMountain View win

2016-10-06Chronological backtest

BeavertonAway

WestviewHome

Final 1-28.7% chanceBeaverton win

2016-09-30Chronological backtest

DelphianAway

DaytonHome

Final 2-18.7% chanceDayton win

2016-10-10Chronological backtest

ReynoldsAway

David DouglasHome

Final 2-38.8% chanceReynolds win

2016-11-05Chronological backtest

La Salle PrepAway

Hood River ValleyHome

Final 0-19.1% chanceLa Salle Prep win

2016-09-29Chronological backtest

St. Mary's, MedfordAway

Milo Adventist Acad.Home

Final 4-09.2% chanceMilo Adventist Acad. win

2016-10-25Chronological backtest

North MarionAway

CascadeHome

Final 2-19.3% chanceCascade win

2016-10-13Chronological backtest

TualatinAway

TigardHome

Final 3-19.4% chanceTigard win

2016-10-13Chronological backtest

Junction CityAway

Cottage GroveHome

Final 1-29.7% chanceJunction City win

2016-09-29Chronological backtest

Forest GroveAway

West SalemHome

Final 1-29.9% chanceForest Grove win

2016-10-11Chronological backtest

DelphianAway

Western Mennonite / PerrydaleHome

Final 0-510.5% chanceDelphian win

2016-10-04Chronological backtest

RiverdaleAway

Portland Adventist Acad.Home

Final 1-210.7% chanceRiverdale win

2016-10-12Chronological backtest

LincolnAway

WilsonHome

Final 1-211.0% chanceLincoln win

2016-10-04Chronological backtest

North MedfordAway

South MedfordHome

Final 1-011.3% chanceSouth Medford win

2016-09-20Chronological backtest

LakeridgeAway

South SalemHome

Final 0-212.0% chanceLakeridge win

2016-10-29Chronological backtest

PhilomathAway

ElmiraHome

Final 1-312.2% chancePhilomath win

2016-09-29Chronological backtest

North SalemAway

McKayHome

Final 1-212.4% chanceNorth Salem win

2016-09-29Chronological backtest

Central ChristianAway

Oregon School f/t DeafHome

Final 2-312.5% chanceCentral Christian win

2016-09-20Chronological backtest

Coquille / Myrtle PointAway

MarshfieldHome

Final 5-012.7% chanceMarshfield win

2016-10-03Chronological backtest

HenleyAway

MazamaHome

Final 0-313.3% chanceHenley win

2016-09-12Chronological backtest

Open Door Christian Acad.Away

Oregon School f/t DeafHome

Final 1-1213.7% chanceOpen Door Christian Acad. win

2016-10-12Chronological backtest

CorvallisAway

South AlbanyHome

Final 3-113.9% chanceSouth Albany win

2016-11-02Chronological backtest

West LinnAway

CenturyHome

Final 1-314.1% chanceWest Linn win

2016-10-13Chronological backtest

Open Door Christian Acad.Away

Southwest ChristianHome

Final 4-114.5% chanceSouthwest Christian win

2016-10-08Chronological backtest

South EugeneAway

Grants PassHome

Final 3-214.5% chanceGrants Pass win

2016-09-06Chronological backtest

DallasAway

St. HelensHome

Final 2-314.7% chanceDallas win

2016-09-06Chronological backtest

North MedfordAway

AshlandHome

Final 0-115.2% chanceNorth Medford win

2016-09-20Chronological backtest

MadrasAway

MolallaHome

Final 3-415.2% chanceMadras win

2016-10-08Chronological backtest

De La Salle North CatholicAway

Trout LakeHome

Final 3-515.3% chanceDe La Salle North Catholic win

2016-09-21Chronological backtest

GervaisAway

Western Mennonite / PerrydaleHome

Final 0-215.4% chanceGervais win

2016-11-02Chronological backtest

NewbergAway

West SalemHome

Final 1-315.5% chanceNewberg win

2016-09-01Chronological backtest

ElmiraAway

CreswellHome

Final 0-115.7% chanceElmira win

2016-09-29Chronological backtest

HenleyAway

Hidden ValleyHome

Final 0-115.9% chanceHenley win

2016-09-22Chronological backtest

TigardAway

BensonHome

Final 0-116.1% chanceTigard win

Date	Match	Final	Underdog winner	Pregame chance	Source
2016-09-19	Prescott at Riverside	2-3	Prescott	2.2%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-06	Corbett at Gladstone	0-1	Corbett	3.4%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-05	Illinois Valley at Pacific / Bandon	1-6	Illinois Valley	4.0%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-14	Santiam Christian at East Linn Christian	1-0	East Linn Christian	4.3%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-06	Crook County at Estacada	3-4	Crook County	4.7%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-20	Bend at Mountain View	3-2	Mountain View	5.7%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-28	Gervais at Faith Bible	2-1	Faith Bible	5.9%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-29	Umpqua Valley Christian / Melrose Christian at Crosshill Christian	4-3	Crosshill Christian	6.0%	Chronological backtest
2016-11-02	Delphian at St. Mary's, Medford	0-1	Delphian	6.0%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-28	Eureka at Brookings-Harbor	1-2	Eureka	6.3%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-08	San Gabriel at Portland Adventist Acad.	1-2	San Gabriel	6.8%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-20	Estacada at Crook County	4-3	Crook County	7.1%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-14	McNary at Central	0-3	McNary	7.5%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-19	Southwest Christian at Crosshill Christian	2-3	Southwest Christian	7.6%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-26	Westview at Century	0-2	Westview	7.8%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-06	Klamath Union at Mazama	1-2	Klamath Union	7.9%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-15	Putnam at Mountain View	3-2	Mountain View	8.3%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-06	Beaverton at Westview	1-2	Beaverton	8.7%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-30	Delphian at Dayton	2-1	Dayton	8.7%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-10	Reynolds at David Douglas	2-3	Reynolds	8.8%	Chronological backtest
2016-11-05	La Salle Prep at Hood River Valley	0-1	La Salle Prep	9.1%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-29	St. Mary's, Medford at Milo Adventist Acad.	4-0	Milo Adventist Acad.	9.2%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-25	North Marion at Cascade	2-1	Cascade	9.3%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-13	Tualatin at Tigard	3-1	Tigard	9.4%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-13	Junction City at Cottage Grove	1-2	Junction City	9.7%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-29	Forest Grove at West Salem	1-2	Forest Grove	9.9%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-11	Delphian at Western Mennonite / Perrydale	0-5	Delphian	10.5%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-04	Riverdale at Portland Adventist Acad.	1-2	Riverdale	10.7%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-12	Lincoln at Wilson	1-2	Lincoln	11.0%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-04	North Medford at South Medford	1-0	South Medford	11.3%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-20	Lakeridge at South Salem	0-2	Lakeridge	12.0%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-29	Philomath at Elmira	1-3	Philomath	12.2%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-29	North Salem at McKay	1-2	North Salem	12.4%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-29	Central Christian at Oregon School f/t Deaf	2-3	Central Christian	12.5%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-20	Coquille / Myrtle Point at Marshfield	5-0	Marshfield	12.7%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-03	Henley at Mazama	0-3	Henley	13.3%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-12	Open Door Christian Acad. at Oregon School f/t Deaf	1-12	Open Door Christian Acad.	13.7%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-12	Corvallis at South Albany	3-1	South Albany	13.9%	Chronological backtest
2016-11-02	West Linn at Century	1-3	West Linn	14.1%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-13	Open Door Christian Acad. at Southwest Christian	4-1	Southwest Christian	14.5%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-08	South Eugene at Grants Pass	3-2	Grants Pass	14.5%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-06	Dallas at St. Helens	2-3	Dallas	14.7%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-06	North Medford at Ashland	0-1	North Medford	15.2%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-20	Madras at Molalla	3-4	Madras	15.2%	Chronological backtest
2016-10-08	De La Salle North Catholic at Trout Lake	3-5	De La Salle North Catholic	15.3%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-21	Gervais at Western Mennonite / Perrydale	0-2	Gervais	15.4%	Chronological backtest
2016-11-02	Newberg at West Salem	1-3	Newberg	15.5%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-01	Elmira at Creswell	0-1	Elmira	15.7%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-29	Henley at Hidden Valley	0-1	Henley	15.9%	Chronological backtest
2016-09-22	Tigard at Benson	0-1	Tigard	16.1%	Chronological backtest