HomeUpsets

Biggest Historical Upsets

Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.

2018-09-14Chronological backtest

Central LinnAway

South AlbanyHome

Final 0-60.0% chanceCentral Linn win

2018-09-13Chronological backtest

HenleyAway

CraterHome

Final 1-00.1% chanceCrater win

2018-10-23Chronological backtest

StaytonAway

CascadeHome

Final 1-00.2% chanceCascade win

2018-10-02Chronological backtest

WeiserAway

Four RiversHome

Final 4-10.3% chanceFour Rivers win

2018-09-19Chronological backtest

CraterAway

Milo Adventist Acad.Home

Final 3-40.7% chanceCrater win

2018-10-04Chronological backtest

GladstoneAway

EstacadaHome

Final 1-01.4% chanceEstacada win

2018-10-04Chronological backtest

DouglasAway

South UmpquaHome

Final 1-02.4% chanceSouth Umpqua win

2018-09-17Chronological backtest

Columbia ChristianAway

Life ChristianHome

Final 2-12.6% chanceLife Christian win

2018-10-18Chronological backtest

Forest GroveAway

McMinnvilleHome

Final 1-03.4% chanceMcMinnville win

2018-09-24Chronological backtest

Central ChristianAway

Horizon Christian, Hood RiverHome

Final 3-43.5% chanceCentral Christian win

2018-09-21Chronological backtest

Western Christian / PerrydaleAway

DelphianHome

Final 3-14.2% chanceDelphian win

2018-09-15Chronological backtest

OntarioAway

McLoughlinHome

Final 1-24.4% chanceOntario win

2018-09-15Chronological backtest

De La Salle North CatholicAway

Trout LakeHome

Final 0-14.9% chanceDe La Salle North Catholic win

2018-09-28Chronological backtest

City ChristianAway

North Clackamas ChristianHome

Final 5-65.8% chanceCity Christian win

2018-10-11Chronological backtest

Lake OswegoAway

CanbyHome

Final 3-05.9% chanceCanby win

2018-09-13Chronological backtest

Oregon EpiscopalAway

SeasideHome

Final 3-17.2% chanceSeaside win

2018-10-06Chronological backtest

Cascade ChristianAway

Livingstone Adventist Acad.Home

Final 7-17.5% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win

2018-10-20Chronological backtest

RiversideAway

NyssaHome

Final 4-07.5% chanceNyssa win

2018-09-13Chronological backtest

WilsonvilleAway

North SalemHome

Final 1-07.6% chanceNorth Salem win

2018-09-27Chronological backtest

PendletonAway

Crook CountyHome

Final 2-18.0% chanceCrook County win

2018-10-30Chronological backtest

AlohaAway

Central CatholicHome

Final 2-38.1% chanceAloha win

2018-09-25Chronological backtest

Junction CityAway

MarshfieldHome

Final 0-18.1% chanceJunction City win

2018-10-11Chronological backtest

TigardAway

Oregon CityHome

Final 2-18.7% chanceOregon City win

2018-11-03Chronological backtest

RiversideAway

Brookings-HarborHome

Final 3-49.1% chanceRiverside win

2018-10-25Chronological backtest

Crook CountyAway

RedmondHome

Final 0-19.3% chanceCrook County win

2018-09-22Chronological backtest

McLoughlinAway

La GrandeHome

Final 4-19.7% chanceLa Grande win

2018-09-25Chronological backtest

Gold BeachAway

Coquille / Myrtle PointHome

Final 2-09.8% chanceCoquille / Myrtle Point win

2018-09-10Chronological backtest

St. Mary's, MedfordAway

Milo Adventist Acad.Home

Final 6-111.0% chanceMilo Adventist Acad. win

2018-10-10Chronological backtest

PhilomathAway

SistersHome

Final 2-111.1% chanceSisters win

2018-10-16Chronological backtest

FranklinAway

LincolnHome

Final 0-111.2% chanceFranklin win

2018-10-04Chronological backtest

Parkview AcademyAway

Livingstone Adventist Acad.Home

Final 4-111.5% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win

2018-10-27Chronological backtest

LibertyAway

TualatinHome

Final 2-311.6% chanceLiberty win

2018-09-13Chronological backtest

Valley CatholicAway

GladstoneHome

Final 2-011.7% chanceGladstone win

2018-10-10Chronological backtest

SandyAway

BarlowHome

Final 1-211.7% chanceSandy win

2018-10-30Chronological backtest

SeasideAway

StaytonHome

Final 0-112.0% chanceSeaside win

2018-10-11Chronological backtest

Crosshill ChristianAway

Portland ChristianHome

Final 9-212.1% chancePortland Christian win

2018-10-04Chronological backtest

AlohaAway

JesuitHome

Final 1-212.4% chanceAloha win

2018-09-18Chronological backtest

JeffersonAway

Central LinnHome

Final 1-413.1% chanceJefferson win

2018-11-06Chronological backtest

North MarionAway

PhoenixHome

Final 0-113.2% chanceNorth Marion win

2018-10-17Chronological backtest

GladstoneAway

North MarionHome

Final 0-113.8% chanceGladstone win

2018-09-15Chronological backtest

IrrigonAway

Four RiversHome

Final 7-314.7% chanceFour Rivers win

2018-09-27Chronological backtest

Milo Adventist Acad.Away

St. Mary's, MedfordHome

Final 1-415.0% chanceMilo Adventist Acad. win

2018-09-27Chronological backtest

MolallaAway

MadrasHome

Final 1-415.2% chanceMolalla win

2018-10-22Chronological backtest

McMinnvilleAway

SherwoodHome

Final 0-115.3% chanceMcMinnville win

2018-10-18Chronological backtest

David DouglasAway

Central CatholicHome

Final 0-115.4% chanceDavid Douglas win

2018-08-27Chronological backtest

WillametteAway

West AlbanyHome

Final 3-215.6% chanceWest Albany win

2018-09-25Chronological backtest

SutherlinAway

GlideHome

Final 1-415.7% chanceSutherlin win

2018-10-22Chronological backtest

GlencoeAway

Forest GroveHome

Final 1-215.8% chanceGlencoe win

2018-09-28Chronological backtest

Mountain ViewAway

SpragueHome

Final 1-316.0% chanceMountain View win

2018-10-02Chronological backtest

LibertyAway

GlencoeHome

Final 2-016.7% chanceGlencoe win

Date	Match	Final	Underdog winner	Pregame chance	Source
2018-09-14	Central Linn at South Albany	0-6	Central Linn	0.0%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-13	Henley at Crater	1-0	Crater	0.1%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-23	Stayton at Cascade	1-0	Cascade	0.2%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-02	Weiser at Four Rivers	4-1	Four Rivers	0.3%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-19	Crater at Milo Adventist Acad.	3-4	Crater	0.7%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-04	Gladstone at Estacada	1-0	Estacada	1.4%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-04	Douglas at South Umpqua	1-0	South Umpqua	2.4%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-17	Columbia Christian at Life Christian	2-1	Life Christian	2.6%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-18	Forest Grove at McMinnville	1-0	McMinnville	3.4%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-24	Central Christian at Horizon Christian, Hood River	3-4	Central Christian	3.5%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-21	Western Christian / Perrydale at Delphian	3-1	Delphian	4.2%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-15	Ontario at McLoughlin	1-2	Ontario	4.4%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-15	De La Salle North Catholic at Trout Lake	0-1	De La Salle North Catholic	4.9%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-28	City Christian at North Clackamas Christian	5-6	City Christian	5.8%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-11	Lake Oswego at Canby	3-0	Canby	5.9%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-13	Oregon Episcopal at Seaside	3-1	Seaside	7.2%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-06	Cascade Christian at Livingstone Adventist Acad.	7-1	Livingstone Adventist Acad.	7.5%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-20	Riverside at Nyssa	4-0	Nyssa	7.5%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-13	Wilsonville at North Salem	1-0	North Salem	7.6%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-27	Pendleton at Crook County	2-1	Crook County	8.0%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-30	Aloha at Central Catholic	2-3	Aloha	8.1%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-25	Junction City at Marshfield	0-1	Junction City	8.1%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-11	Tigard at Oregon City	2-1	Oregon City	8.7%	Chronological backtest
2018-11-03	Riverside at Brookings-Harbor	3-4	Riverside	9.1%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-25	Crook County at Redmond	0-1	Crook County	9.3%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-22	McLoughlin at La Grande	4-1	La Grande	9.7%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-25	Gold Beach at Coquille / Myrtle Point	2-0	Coquille / Myrtle Point	9.8%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-10	St. Mary's, Medford at Milo Adventist Acad.	6-1	Milo Adventist Acad.	11.0%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-10	Philomath at Sisters	2-1	Sisters	11.1%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-16	Franklin at Lincoln	0-1	Franklin	11.2%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-04	Parkview Academy at Livingstone Adventist Acad.	4-1	Livingstone Adventist Acad.	11.5%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-27	Liberty at Tualatin	2-3	Liberty	11.6%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-13	Valley Catholic at Gladstone	2-0	Gladstone	11.7%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-10	Sandy at Barlow	1-2	Sandy	11.7%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-30	Seaside at Stayton	0-1	Seaside	12.0%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-11	Crosshill Christian at Portland Christian	9-2	Portland Christian	12.1%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-04	Aloha at Jesuit	1-2	Aloha	12.4%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-18	Jefferson at Central Linn	1-4	Jefferson	13.1%	Chronological backtest
2018-11-06	North Marion at Phoenix	0-1	North Marion	13.2%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-17	Gladstone at North Marion	0-1	Gladstone	13.8%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-15	Irrigon at Four Rivers	7-3	Four Rivers	14.7%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-27	Milo Adventist Acad. at St. Mary's, Medford	1-4	Milo Adventist Acad.	15.0%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-27	Molalla at Madras	1-4	Molalla	15.2%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-22	McMinnville at Sherwood	0-1	McMinnville	15.3%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-18	David Douglas at Central Catholic	0-1	David Douglas	15.4%	Chronological backtest
2018-08-27	Willamette at West Albany	3-2	West Albany	15.6%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-25	Sutherlin at Glide	1-4	Sutherlin	15.7%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-22	Glencoe at Forest Grove	1-2	Glencoe	15.8%	Chronological backtest
2018-09-28	Mountain View at Sprague	1-3	Mountain View	16.0%	Chronological backtest
2018-10-02	Liberty at Glencoe	2-0	Glencoe	16.7%	Chronological backtest