HomeUpsets
Biggest Historical Upsets
Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Scores are home–away. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. Backtests that predate the verified JV cleanup are withheld until refreshed. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.
2021-10-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-12.1% chanceLake Oswego win
2021-11-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-14.4% chanceOntario win
2021-10-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-25.0% chanceJunction City win
2021-10-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-25.3% chanceNorth Bend win
2021-10-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-76.3% chanceWillamette Valley Christian win
2021-10-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-06.9% chanceOregon City win
2021-09-29Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-78.0% chanceMannahouse Christian Acad. win
2021-11-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-59.3% chanceMolalla win
2021-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-310.0% chanceSt. Mary's, Medford win
2021-11-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-210.4% chanceDayton win
2021-10-12Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-211.9% chanceForest Grove win
2021-10-07Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-412.8% chanceCrosshill Christian / Jefferson win
2021-10-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-212.8% chanceGlide win
2021-10-28Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-313.1% chanceSantiam Christian / Kings Valley Char. win
2021-10-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-313.6% chanceReynolds win
2021-11-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-414.1% chanceCorvallis win
2021-10-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-414.7% chanceLivingstone Adventist Acad. win
2021-10-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-215.2% chanceSouth Umpqua win
2021-10-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-315.6% chanceMannahouse Christian Acad. win
2021-10-15Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-116.1% chanceIda B. Wells win
2021-10-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-417.0% chanceGervais win
2021-11-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-217.3% chanceDayton win
2021-10-19Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-117.5% chanceMcDaniel win
2021-10-26Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-117.6% chanceLa Grande win
2021-11-06Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-117.8% chanceNorth Marion win
2021-09-11Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-318.3% chanceYamhill-Carlton win
2021-10-20Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-318.4% chanceTualatin win
2021-10-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-019.4% chanceSeaside win
2021-10-18Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-319.5% chanceCanby win
2021-08-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-419.6% chanceSilverton win
2021-10-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-120.3% chanceRedmond / Culver win
2021-09-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-121.0% chanceBanks win
2021-10-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-521.7% chanceEast Linn Christian win
2021-09-21Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-221.9% chanceRidgeview win
2021-10-13Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-122.1% chanceBeaverton win
2021-11-03Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-422.3% chanceCleveland win
2021-10-25Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-122.5% chanceGervais win
2021-10-30Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-422.8% chanceWest Salem win
2021-09-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-023.2% chanceGresham win
2021-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 4-323.7% chanceReynolds win
2021-10-04Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 3-023.8% chanceSherwood win
2021-09-27Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-124.3% chanceNorth Valley / Rogue River win
2021-09-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-124.4% chanceTillamook win
2021-09-23Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 0-424.5% chanceIda B. Wells win
2021-09-22Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-124.5% chanceCanby win
2021-09-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-324.7% chanceJesuit win
2021-10-05Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-325.1% chanceClackamas win
2021-10-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 2-125.1% chancePortland Adventist Acad. win
2021-09-16Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 1-825.4% chanceSutherlin win
2021-09-09Chronological backtest
Final (home–away) 6-225.4% chanceCleveland win
| Date | Match | Final (home–away) | Underdog winner | Pregame chance | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-10-18 | | 4-1 | Lake Oswego | 2.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-11-03 | | 0-1 | Ontario | 4.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-18 | | 3-2 | Junction City | 5.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-26 | | 3-2 | North Bend | 5.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-09 | | 4-7 | Willamette Valley Christian | 6.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-25 | | 1-0 | Oregon City | 6.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-09-29 | | 4-7 | Mannahouse Christian Acad. | 8.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-11-06 | | 3-5 | Molalla | 9.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-04 | | 0-3 | St. Mary's, Medford | 10.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-11-06 | | 1-2 | Dayton | 10.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-12 | | 0-2 | Forest Grove | 11.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-07 | | 2-4 | Crosshill Christian / Jefferson | 12.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-11 | | 3-2 | Glide | 12.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-28 | | 4-3 | Santiam Christian / Kings Valley Char. | 13.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-06 | | 2-3 | Reynolds | 13.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-11-09 | | 3-4 | Corvallis | 14.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-20 | | 0-4 | Livingstone Adventist Acad. | 14.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-19 | | 0-2 | South Umpqua | 15.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-25 | | 1-3 | Mannahouse Christian Acad. | 15.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-15 | | 2-1 | Ida B. Wells | 16.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-11 | | 1-4 | Gervais | 17.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-11-09 | | 1-2 | Dayton | 17.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-19 | | 0-1 | McDaniel | 17.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-26 | | 0-1 | La Grande | 17.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-11-06 | | 0-1 | North Marion | 17.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-09-11 | | 2-3 | Yamhill-Carlton | 18.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-20 | | 2-3 | Tualatin | 18.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-05 | | 1-0 | Seaside | 19.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-18 | | 1-3 | Canby | 19.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-08-27 | | 2-4 | Silverton | 19.6% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-05 | | 0-1 | Redmond / Culver | 20.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-09-30 | | 0-1 | Banks | 21.0% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-30 | | 2-5 | East Linn Christian | 21.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-09-21 | | 0-2 | Ridgeview | 21.9% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-13 | | 2-1 | Beaverton | 22.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-11-03 | | 2-4 | Cleveland | 22.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-25 | | 0-1 | Gervais | 22.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-30 | | 3-4 | West Salem | 22.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-09-23 | | 2-0 | Gresham | 23.2% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-04 | | 4-3 | Reynolds | 23.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-04 | | 3-0 | Sherwood | 23.8% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-09-27 | | 2-1 | North Valley / Rogue River | 24.3% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-09-09 | | 0-1 | Tillamook | 24.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-09-23 | | 0-4 | Ida B. Wells | 24.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-09-22 | | 2-1 | Canby | 24.5% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-09-16 | | 2-3 | Jesuit | 24.7% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-05 | | 1-3 | Clackamas | 25.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-10-09 | | 2-1 | Portland Adventist Acad. | 25.1% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-09-16 | | 1-8 | Sutherlin | 25.4% | Chronological backtest |
| 2021-09-09 | | 6-2 | Cleveland | 25.4% | Chronological backtest |