HomeUpsets

Biggest Historical Upsets

Final games ranked by the winning team's stored pregame win probability. Chronological backtests use only information available before that game. These probabilities are OregonSportsRanking analytics, not official OSAA predictions.

2025-09-30Chronological backtest

IrrigonAway

Prescott (WA)Home

Final 0-21.4% chanceIrrigon win

2025-09-20Chronological backtest

Nampa (ID)Away

OntarioHome

Final 1-34.5% chanceNampa (ID) win

2025-10-02Chronological backtest

PendletonAway

UmatillaHome

Final 1-25.7% chancePendleton win

2025-10-15Chronological backtest

North BendAway

Junction City / HarrisburgHome

Final 2-16.6% chanceJunction City / Harrisburg win

2025-09-20Chronological backtest

Baker / Powder Valley / Pine EagleAway

Fruitland (ID)Home

Final 2-66.8% chanceBaker / Powder Valley / Pine Eagle win

2025-10-22Chronological backtest

Portland ChristianAway

Central ChristianHome

Final 2-18.6% chanceCentral Christian win

2025-11-11Chronological backtest

CorvallisAway

SummitHome

Final 2-39.2% chanceCorvallis win

2025-09-22Chronological backtest

Banks / VernoniaAway

Riverside, WLWVHome

Final 2-19.2% chanceRiverside, WLWV win

2025-10-22Chronological backtest

Redmond / CulverAway

BendHome

Final 4-211.5% chanceBend win

2025-09-09Chronological backtest

McKayAway

FranklinHome

Final 1-211.5% chanceMcKay win

2025-09-16Chronological backtest

NestuccaAway

KennedyHome

Final 0-112.6% chanceNestucca win

2025-09-16Chronological backtest

Newport / WaldportAway

TillamookHome

Final 0-113.0% chanceNewport / Waldport win

2025-09-09Chronological backtest

Prescott (WA)Away

IrrigonHome

Final 1-013.1% chanceIrrigon win

2025-10-06Chronological backtest

McMinnvilleAway

GlencoeHome

Final 2-013.3% chanceGlencoe win

2025-10-20Chronological backtest

Forest GroveAway

NewbergHome

Final 1-013.4% chanceNewberg win

2025-09-18Chronological backtest

PhoenixAway

Eagle PointHome

Final 1-013.5% chanceEagle Point win

2025-11-11Chronological backtest

Westside ChristianAway

Oregon EpiscopalHome

Final 0-113.8% chanceWestside Christian win

2025-09-16Chronological backtest

SutherlinAway

Umpqua Valley ChristianHome

Final 1-214.3% chanceSutherlin win

2025-10-02Chronological backtest

HillsboroAway

PutnamHome

Final 1-214.4% chanceHillsboro win

2025-09-16Chronological backtest

Coquille / Myrtle PointAway

DouglasHome

Final 1-314.4% chanceCoquille / Myrtle Point win

2025-10-16Chronological backtest

Riverside, WLWVAway

Portland Adventist Acad.Home

Final 2-314.4% chanceRiverside, WLWV win

2025-09-18Chronological backtest

Crescent ValleyAway

SunsetHome

Final 0-314.4% chanceCrescent Valley win

2025-09-24Chronological backtest

Junction City / HarrisburgAway

ElmiraHome

Final 0-115.2% chanceJunction City / Harrisburg win

2025-09-16Chronological backtest

RooseveltAway

CentennialHome

Final 1-415.5% chanceRoosevelt win

2025-09-13Chronological backtest

West AlbanyAway

AshlandHome

Final 1-215.8% chanceWest Albany win

2025-09-15Chronological backtest

Ida B. WellsAway

BeavertonHome

Final 3-015.8% chanceBeaverton win

2025-10-09Chronological backtest

Central LinnAway

SistersHome

Final 0-115.8% chanceCentral Linn win

2025-10-27Chronological backtest

C.S. Lewis Acad.Away

Central ChristianHome

Final 5-415.9% chanceCentral Christian win

2025-09-20Chronological backtest

PendletonAway

MadrasHome

Final 3-416.1% chancePendleton win

2025-10-02Chronological backtest

Lost River / BonanzaAway

Butte Valley (CA)Home

Final 3-416.5% chanceLost River / Bonanza win

2025-09-18Chronological backtest

GlencoeAway

Hood River ValleyHome

Final 3-116.7% chanceHood River Valley win

2025-10-10Chronological backtest

Columbia Adventist (WA)Away

Portland Adventist Acad.Home

Final 4-316.7% chancePortland Adventist Acad. win

2025-09-06Chronological backtest

Blanchet CatholicAway

Riverside, WLWVHome

Final 1-316.8% chanceBlanchet Catholic win

2025-10-16Chronological backtest

Damascus ChristianAway

Columbia ChristianHome

Final 2-616.9% chanceDamascus Christian win

2025-09-18Chronological backtest

Illinois ValleyAway

North ValleyHome

Final 2-017.0% chanceNorth Valley win

2025-09-12Chronological backtest

SpragueAway

BensonHome

Final 1-217.3% chanceSprague win

2025-09-23Chronological backtest

EstacadaAway

MolallaHome

Final 1-217.6% chanceEstacada win

2025-09-25Chronological backtest

NelsonAway

CenturyHome

Final 1-417.8% chanceNelson win

2025-11-05Chronological backtest

Ida B. WellsAway

McMinnvilleHome

Final 0-118.0% chanceIda B. Wells win

2025-09-23Chronological backtest

BensonAway

Milwaukie / Milwaukie Acad. of the ArtsHome

Final 1-018.1% chanceMilwaukie / Milwaukie Acad. of the Arts win

2025-09-23Chronological backtest

Columbia ChristianAway

Damascus ChristianHome

Final 7-418.3% chanceDamascus Christian win

2025-09-13Chronological backtest

CreswellAway

St. Mary's, MedfordHome

Final 3-018.3% chanceSt. Mary's, Medford win

2025-10-23Chronological backtest

West AlbanyAway

WoodburnHome

Final 3-218.4% chanceWoodburn win

2025-09-26Chronological backtest

McLoughlinAway

OntarioHome

Final 1-318.6% chanceMcLoughlin win

2025-10-14Chronological backtest

CorvallisAway

West AlbanyHome

Final 1-518.7% chanceCorvallis win

2025-10-09Chronological backtest

AlohaAway

SouthridgeHome

Final 1-319.2% chanceAloha win

2025-09-09Chronological backtest

Salem Acad.Away

Riverside, WLWVHome

Final 1-719.2% chanceSalem Acad. win

2025-08-28Chronological backtest

C.S. Lewis Acad.Away

Trout Lake / Horizon Christian, Hood RiverHome

Final 2-519.4% chanceC.S. Lewis Acad. win

2025-09-18Chronological backtest

GrantAway

SherwoodHome

Final 0-219.4% chanceGrant win

2025-11-15Chronological backtest

Westside ChristianAway

Catlin GabelHome

Final 1-219.7% chanceWestside Christian win

Date	Match	Final	Underdog winner	Pregame chance	Source
2025-09-30	Irrigon at Prescott (WA)	0-2	Irrigon	1.4%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-20	Nampa (ID) at Ontario	1-3	Nampa (ID)	4.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-02	Pendleton at Umatilla	1-2	Pendleton	5.7%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-15	North Bend at Junction City / Harrisburg	2-1	Junction City / Harrisburg	6.6%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-20	Baker / Powder Valley / Pine Eagle at Fruitland (ID)	2-6	Baker / Powder Valley / Pine Eagle	6.8%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-22	Portland Christian at Central Christian	2-1	Central Christian	8.6%	Chronological backtest
2025-11-11	Corvallis at Summit	2-3	Corvallis	9.2%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-22	Banks / Vernonia at Riverside, WLWV	2-1	Riverside, WLWV	9.2%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-22	Redmond / Culver at Bend	4-2	Bend	11.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-09	McKay at Franklin	1-2	McKay	11.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-16	Nestucca at Kennedy	0-1	Nestucca	12.6%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-16	Newport / Waldport at Tillamook	0-1	Newport / Waldport	13.0%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-09	Prescott (WA) at Irrigon	1-0	Irrigon	13.1%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-06	McMinnville at Glencoe	2-0	Glencoe	13.3%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-20	Forest Grove at Newberg	1-0	Newberg	13.4%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-18	Phoenix at Eagle Point	1-0	Eagle Point	13.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-11-11	Westside Christian at Oregon Episcopal	0-1	Westside Christian	13.8%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-16	Sutherlin at Umpqua Valley Christian	1-2	Sutherlin	14.3%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-02	Hillsboro at Putnam	1-2	Hillsboro	14.4%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-16	Coquille / Myrtle Point at Douglas	1-3	Coquille / Myrtle Point	14.4%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-16	Riverside, WLWV at Portland Adventist Acad.	2-3	Riverside, WLWV	14.4%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-18	Crescent Valley at Sunset	0-3	Crescent Valley	14.4%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-24	Junction City / Harrisburg at Elmira	0-1	Junction City / Harrisburg	15.2%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-16	Roosevelt at Centennial	1-4	Roosevelt	15.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-13	West Albany at Ashland	1-2	West Albany	15.8%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-15	Ida B. Wells at Beaverton	3-0	Beaverton	15.8%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-09	Central Linn at Sisters	0-1	Central Linn	15.8%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-27	C.S. Lewis Acad. at Central Christian	5-4	Central Christian	15.9%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-20	Pendleton at Madras	3-4	Pendleton	16.1%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-02	Lost River / Bonanza at Butte Valley (CA)	3-4	Lost River / Bonanza	16.5%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-18	Glencoe at Hood River Valley	3-1	Hood River Valley	16.7%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-10	Columbia Adventist (WA) at Portland Adventist Acad.	4-3	Portland Adventist Acad.	16.7%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-06	Blanchet Catholic at Riverside, WLWV	1-3	Blanchet Catholic	16.8%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-16	Damascus Christian at Columbia Christian	2-6	Damascus Christian	16.9%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-18	Illinois Valley at North Valley	2-0	North Valley	17.0%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-12	Sprague at Benson	1-2	Sprague	17.3%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-23	Estacada at Molalla	1-2	Estacada	17.6%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-25	Nelson at Century	1-4	Nelson	17.8%	Chronological backtest
2025-11-05	Ida B. Wells at McMinnville	0-1	Ida B. Wells	18.0%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-23	Benson at Milwaukie / Milwaukie Acad. of the Arts	1-0	Milwaukie / Milwaukie Acad. of the Arts	18.1%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-23	Columbia Christian at Damascus Christian	7-4	Damascus Christian	18.3%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-13	Creswell at St. Mary's, Medford	3-0	St. Mary's, Medford	18.3%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-23	West Albany at Woodburn	3-2	Woodburn	18.4%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-26	McLoughlin at Ontario	1-3	McLoughlin	18.6%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-14	Corvallis at West Albany	1-5	Corvallis	18.7%	Chronological backtest
2025-10-09	Aloha at Southridge	1-3	Aloha	19.2%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-09	Salem Acad. at Riverside, WLWV	1-7	Salem Acad.	19.2%	Chronological backtest
2025-08-28	C.S. Lewis Acad. at Trout Lake / Horizon Christian, Hood River	2-5	C.S. Lewis Acad.	19.4%	Chronological backtest
2025-09-18	Grant at Sherwood	0-2	Grant	19.4%	Chronological backtest
2025-11-15	Westside Christian at Catlin Gabel	1-2	Westside Christian	19.7%	Chronological backtest